The Internet Is Closing.

The Internet existed long before there were any web pages. For many years academics used the Internet to send emails, swap files (using FTP) and hold discussions (using NNTP). Then Tim Berners-Lee came along and mashed a few existing but disparate ideas together and created the World Wide Web (HTTP). The Internet now had its killer application and adoption rates sored. The World Wide Web is such a killer application that many people simply refer to the Web as “the Internet”.

But the open World Wide Web is under attack and could become just as marginalised as FTP and NNTP in the very near future.

The very first computer that crossed the threshold of the Caudle family was a ping-pong type game made. It plugged into the TV and kept me and my brother occupied for ages. I remember the Xmas day that it arrived and thinking “Life doesn’t get better than this”. The machine took batteries and it wasn’t long before the back was off and we could see the circuit board. In my naivety I thought that the green circuit board was the table that we played ping-pong on and there was a camera in the machine that recorded the action and pumped it out onto the TV.

The next piece of computerised kit arrived at Xmas 81 in the form of an Atari Console. The games were much better and you could just plug in a cartridge when you wanted to play a game.

With both of these systems there was never an expectation that we could do anything with it except as allowed by the manufacturer. The first system allowed batteries to be installed but that was it and with the Atari Console you simply slotted in cartridges made by Atari. A company called Activision did start making cartridges as well but we never got any. The rumour around school was that they broke the Console.

Things changed at Xmas 82 when we got a ZX Spectrum with a massive 16kb of memory and 8 colours. My father refused to let me and my brother spend money on computer games so we either wrote our own or typed them in from magazines. And this is where the expectations for me were set. I was used to being able to get my computer to do the things I wanted it to do and not wait for someone to write something for me. I think in this regard I was atypical, in fact I know I was atypical. While the other kids were busy discussing reviews of computer games in one magazine I was busy reading another magazine that was teaching me how to program. And I got verbal abuse - teenagers eh?

So skip forward a good few years and we are all used to installing the software we want on our computers. Windows users are used to having the bad guys install software on their computers as well. We are also used to visiting web sites and having the freedom to choose where we go and what we do. Whole companies, such as Google, have built billion dollar turnovers on the assumption that the World Wide Web will:

  1. Always be there
  2. Users will always have the choice to visit the web site they want
  3. There will always be a browser (Internet Explorer, FireFox, Chrome, Safari, Opera) for you to use

I believe that it is only a matter of time that the three things above will cease to be true.

The cultural shift that is necessary for the World Wide Web to disappear has already started and it came from Apple. When the original iPhone was released there were no apps to download and install. Apple said that applications should be written via web sites and the user would use Mobile Safari to visit the site and do their thing. With the second generation of the iPhone, Apple announced the App Store and released a set of tools that allowed developers to create these applications. Nothing new in creating a store to sell applications for mobile devices, Palm had had one for years and there were many thousands of Java applications out their. What Apple did differently was make the process of buying and installing applications totally seamless and easier than falling off a log. They made a complex process into a few clicks and entering your Apple password.

But the biggest change was that the ONLY way of getting applications onto an iPhone was via the App Store. The previous App Stores for other platforms were optional - you could just as easily have gone to a developers web site and buy a product not listed in an App Store. But not with Apple. Only Apple approved apps are available. And the Apple approval system is very strict on what is, and what is not, acceptable.

For Android phones the outlook is a little different. There is an App Store as well but you are not restricted to what appears there. You can simply visit a developers web site and download an application if the App Store won’t stock it or if the developer doesn’t want it sold that way.

While having the choice of where to get your applications from is great in theory the practise is very different. The vast majority of users do not go looking far for what they want. Just like my peers in my teenage years would never have thought about creating their own games or buying something not reviewed in the magazines, most people will not go hunting for applications. If there is an icon on your phones screen or computer desktop that takes you to a place where there are thousands of applications, the vast majority of people will never look elsewhere. 

This is not just conjecture or me trying to get back at the borderline bullies of my teenage years. Many years ago Microsoft attempted to take over the World Wide Web. They had been caught on the hop and had totally failed to see how big it was going to be. Microsoft was convinced that CD-Roms were the future and invested heavily in Encarta and other titles. Microsoft even attempted to corral people into their own private “internet”, but that failed quite quickly. Microsoft decided to subvert the standards process that decides how web pages should be structured so they can be viewed. On the desktop of every copy of Windows was the “Internet Explorer” icon. Click it and you are on the Internet. And because Microsoft have a monopoly on computer software almost every computing looking at the World Wide Web was using a Microsoft product to do so. Internet Explorer, at its peak, was being used by 95% all of computers viewing web pages.

There were plenty of alternatives, Netscape and Opera (plus loads of others) were around but you had to go and find them and most people couldn't be bothered, didn’t realise they had a choice or were aware of the choice but preferred Internet Explorer. Research showed that most people didn’t realise there was anything else out there and legal action followed to open up the market.

Apple last week announced an App Store for their computers. Users would be able to find new software, claimed Apple, and there would no lock-in (or lock-out). Apple hope to make money on paid-for applications. There are many reasons why this particular App Store will fail - enough for a separate article - but if it does succeed Microsoft will not be far behind in copying what Apple does - as they have always historically done. And while Android phones would appear to allow users free reign, this is not always the case. The telecommunication companies are already creating their own Android App Stores and locking customers into their stores.

So how does this translate into the death of the World Wide Web? Some of it is coming from users themselves. It is easier to use a native application on a smart phone or computer than it is to use the mobile version of the web site. FaceBook is a prime example here, most people would rather use the FaceBook app for the iPhone and Android than FaceBook’s own website optimised for small screens. Also there is TweetDeck, a multiple platform application that allows you manage multiple Twitter accounts as well as FaceBook and LinkedIn from one place in a very easy to use interface. Why bother visiting 3 web sites to check your updates when there is a tool that manages all of this? And TweetDeck syncs your setting across your iPhone, Android Phone, iPad and desktop AND it runs on Windows, Mac OS and Linux.

Also the major computer and phone companies are not interested in the users freedom, they are only interested in making money. The phone companies don’t make any money when you go on FaceBook via the application or the web site - FaceBook though gets to sell some adverts. You have paid for your bundled data and that is it. Vodafone et al have become what is know in the industry as ‘bit pipes’ - they simply move data from one place to another. For some reason the major phone companies seem to think this is a bit demeaning and below them. They seem to think they have to “add value” which actually means “take more money from the customer”. They have started this by creating their own App stores, locking down phones and all sorts of shenanigans. 

Applications are being pushed at users big time from all angles. Under that pressure I can’t see users resisting this push. And if we are all using applications to access FaceBook etc why do we need the World Wide Web? For the vast majority of people what is available “on the menu” (the application store) will be enough. The computer/phone companies will demand a share of the revenue that online services make in return for allowing their application to be made available and they will kill open access to the World Wide Web.